Alberta's Premiere is Forging an Unabashedly Pragmatic Independence Movement
Alberta’s Premiere, Danielle Smith, announced early last month that she is rolling out legislation to enable Albertans to vote in 2026 on a proposal to secede from Canada. If 10% of Albertan voters sign a petition within 120 days, as stipulated in the new legislation, Premiere Smith has pledged she will hold a binding referendum on Alberta’s secession from the federation. Even if Alberta is unlikely to actually separate from Canada, the threat to secede may strengthen Alberta’s hand as it attempts to negotiate greater political and economic independence from Canada.
Alberta’s peculiarly pragmatic brand of separatism is more in line with the the 18th century American Revolution, dominated by political opposition to a burdensome British tax rather than any strong sense of a distinct cultural identity, than the more ethno-linguistic forms of separatism that we today see in places like Catalonia, Basque Country, and Scotland.
Unlike European separatists, whether in Catalonia, the Basque country, or Scotland, who blend claims about a historical inheritance and separate identity and culture with the more pragmatic claim that they can benefit economically from enhanced independence, Alberta’s Premiere is placing the accent much more on the value of economic independence and the need to come out from under the yoke of economically debilitating federal policies.
For example, Danielle Smith has been outspoken in her criticism of federal climate regulations, which she claims are stifling Alberta’s oil and gas sector. During a televised address to Albertans on May 5, 2025, she underlined Alberta's desire for autonomy in managing its natural resources and criticized federal policies like current carbon emission caps that she believes hinder the province's economic potential. As she put it in that speech, “We just want to be free to develop and export that incredible wealth of resources we have.”
The Albertan government’s "Alberta Next" panel will chair public consultations across the province to explore autonomy options—including constitutional challenges to federal mandates. In addition, the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, which was enacted in December 2022, authorises Alberta’s Legislative Assembly to pass motions identifying specific federal initiatives as unconstitutional or detrimental to Albertans. Upon such a motion, the provincial cabinet can direct agencies of the provincial government, including municipalities, school boards, and health authorities, to not enforce the specified federal laws or policies.
This is the backdrop against which a vote on independence would take place in 2026, assuming the petition reaches the required 10% threshold of voter support. Recent opinion polls from organisations like Leger and Angus Reid Institute (both conducted in May 2025) indicate that somewhere between 29% and 47% of Albertans support the idea of Alberta leaving Canada or becoming an independent country. So there is certainly no reason to assume that an independence referendum would be successful.
Nevertheless, the mere threat of separation is inherently unsettling and may prove a valuable bargaining chip to win back greater policy autonomy, especially on sensitive issues like natural resources and energy policy. What is particularly interesting about the Albertan independence movement is that even if it makes some mention of Albertan identity and values - something you would expect from any political independence movement - the accent is overwhelmingly on the economic and political interests of Albertans, especially their need for more economically realistic energy policies.
The pragmatic nature of Alberta’s independence movement, particularly as it has been articulated by Premiere Smith, makes it a more “rational” or calculating, and less emotive, identity-based movement than its counterparts in Europe. This may make it more challenging to mobilise support behind it, as cool economic calculations, freed from the emotions of cultural and historical attachments, may not be enough to motivate a large population to take a risk on a radically new political proposal.
On the other hand, the pragmatic nature of Alberta’s independence movement may also make it a more powerful beacon for those who wish to push back against federal power, since a less ethno-cultural form of separatism is easier to export to very different cultural contexts. Even if full secession never happens, if Alberta succeeds in winning greater autonomy from the federal government in policy areas like carbon emissions, education, and natural resource management, the lesson will not be lost on other political actors, both within and beyond Canada.
Free subscribers, please consider supporting my work by upgrading to a paid subscription.
P.S. It is not too late to sign up for The Thinking Society course. All six sessions are recorded for participants to view at their leisure and divided up into digestible sections.
You can sign up for the full course here. Alternatively, you can purchase stand-alone access to module 3, “How the System Shapes Us,” which I delivered on Thursday, here.
You can also find me on Twitter/X, Youtube, Rumble, and Telegram.
Find my latest book, The Polycentric Republic, which lays out a decentralised vision of politics, here.
My academic profile and publications are listed at davidthunder.com.